Welcome Avatar! Lula’s digital army landed in Buenos Aires on the same day the US was voting in the Midterm elections. By Wednesday Trump had lost the House, leaving some Argentine commentators worried that Argentina might no longer be a focus point for the US in the months to come.
On Monday this week, André Janones, the Brazilian deputy who ran the Ejército de Lula WhatsApp machine, decided to go on an inmate visitation at Cristina Kirchner’s home, after paying a visit to Sergio Massa in Tigre.
From her living room he posted on X:
“Alongside CFKArgentina, let’s tell the world that yes, we can defeat the far right!”
Janones fits right into the Peronist framework: he is currently subject to a restraining order granted to his ex-partner, who accuses him of threats to use intimate images to blackmail her following the end of their relationship, and of attempting to interfere in her municipal administration, including by demanding the dismissal of public employees.
Besides this, the Federal Police in Brazil also investigated Janones for forcing staff in his congressional office to kick back part of their public salaries to cover his personal and campaign costs between 2019 and 2020. He escaped prosecution by agreement, not because he was innocent.
Right after the Brazil elections in Rir Pra Não Chorar, I wrote that it was very likely that the Peronists would receive help from our northern neighbors with the 2027 elections, just like the Brazilian operation in 2023 that elected nobody. What I did not expect or predict, was that Lula would send his emissary to Argentina in little less than a fortnight after the elections.
The US Midterm outcome was predicted, but as we have seen in the Brazil elections: you never know. Now that the outcome is confirmed, what impact will this have for the support from Bessent & Co in terms of standing by with “whatever it takes” to avoid a currency run in 2027? The democrats have been very critical about the previous swap before the Argentine midterms, and could potentially be even more critical if there’s more help next year.
None of this calls the outcome of the 2027 election, but with a new scandal and these two political changes in the two countries that matter most for Argentina, a 2027 reelection could become an uphill battle for Milei. More about that in detail below, including a side note on Argentina’s CBI program.
