Argentina Macro Pulse No.3: May 2026
The Good, the Bad, and the Hidden Political Tensions Inside La Libertad Avanza
Welcome Avatar! If you’ve been following the first two Macro Pulse issues here and here, you already have the framework: institutional-grade reports produced by the team advising the Milei administration on macro policy.
This May report is, in two words: politically loaded. The macro story is steady (a soft patch in February, inflation back to its lowest level in months, exports breaking records, and a Fitch upgrade that takes Argentina back into B territory for the first time since 2019), but the real signal in this issue is political.
The 2027 candidate selection drama inside La Libertad Avanza is getting visible, Bullrich just planted her flag in CABA, and there is a quiet structural crack opening up in the libertarian base around Provincia de Buenos Aires that the press will not be reporting on. If you only read one part of this issue, that is the part to read.
Here is what is covered inside:
The Bad: Why the February EMAE print came in soft, and why it is the lagging cost of last year’s electoral noise rather than a new trend.
The Good: April CPI back to its lowest level in months, the four factors behind the move, and why the downward trend is structurally locked in.
The Rating Upgrade: Fitch’s move to B-, why the B-tier matters, and what it changes for institutional capital allocation.
CABA’s RIGI and RIMI: The city of Buenos Aires’s investment regimes just passed, opening a new doorway for foreign capital between USD 100k and large-cap projects.
Adorni Down, Bullrich Up: Where the 2027 CABA race actually stands after a scandal that this rodent flagged as a House of Cards setup last month.
The Provincia de Buenos Aires Fracture: The internal libertarian dispute the press is not covering, why it matters for 2027, and what it tells you about the structural stress inside LLA.
The Candidate Trade-Off: Proprietary but weak versus electorally strong but less controllable. The Godfather problem Karina Milei has to resolve.
Mara’s read: Real estate, CBI timing, ARS exposure, and what the political signal means for capital deployment over the next 18 months.
Here we go.