Welcome Avatar! The Macro Pulse report for August is full of streaks and setbacks, and goes over the reserve and inflation wins, with a deep dive on the morosidad issue of “defaulting families”, to see if the narrative that is gaining traction in traditional media outlets has any legs to stand on.
From this issue on, my involvement in the macro part of the report will be more direct, and I’m adding an additional section with a highlighted local company ticker. The first company under the lens is an oil name that got a famous new shareholder this week.
Last month we were wondering if sub 2% monthly inflation would finally become a reality, and it looks like we have our answers after the INDEC came out with the latest inflation data.
Here is what is covered inside:
Inflation: July inflation higher after June’s sub-2% print and what drove it. The reasons behind the annual number ticking up for the first time in months.
The Nervous Spread around a Calm Peso: the official rate below 1,490 but Country Risk index rising after hitting its Milei-era low, and what the bond market is pricing.
BCRA USD reserves < $50 Billion: reserves have hit a seven year high, despite slower buying pace.
BCRA Reform: vote for the reform text is set for August 26, and how much of the original Milei package survived.
“Indebted families” panic: overall delinquency map that was widely shared on social media this week, the comparison with the BIS table that puts things into perspective, and the demographics around these defaulters.
M3 Debate: we run the numbers on the criticisms around the “money supply tripling” under Milei.
NEW: The Ticker: A Vaca Muerta pure play I flagged back in January.
Mara’s read: how these stats could influence Milei’s 2027 reelection campaign.
Vamos.