For someone looking to invest in a pozo within the next 3 months, how could this affect real estate prices? From what I understood, short term, prices could go up due to outflow from dollar deposits with amnesty, but curious about mid-term?
Yes, I would say no matter what happens to the exchange rate, the average m2 prices will still go up because they were in a downtrend for so long, and mortgages are finally coming on the market. With regards to pozos (I am in 2 myself), this can turn out in 2 ways:
1) Inflation stabilizes further, and there is no flight to the dollar. In this scenario, your peso installments per month will increase slightly, but not by a whole lot. They will be a bit more expensive in USD terms, but nothing major (since March this year my peso CAC installments have increased by 4% in dollar terms).
2) Inflation picks up due to a flight to the dollar and there's a devaluation. In this scenario, your installments would probably decrease in dollar terms, despite the peso amount going up a lot faster.
So in both cases in dollar terms you should not see a significant shift, unless #2 plays out with a brutal devaluation like under Macri, thanks to which I ended up paying 20% less in dollars for an apartment with a pozo structure.
If you have an agreement in dollar installments without CAC, those installments would be fixed, but hardly any developer gives out that kind of financing anymore, unless it goes with a significantly higher m2 price vs the market currently.
With regards to the m2 price, I frankly only see that going up mid to long term, since demand is outweighing supply and mortgages are a thing again.
For someone looking to invest in a pozo within the next 3 months, how could this affect real estate prices? From what I understood, short term, prices could go up due to outflow from dollar deposits with amnesty, but curious about mid-term?
Yes, I would say no matter what happens to the exchange rate, the average m2 prices will still go up because they were in a downtrend for so long, and mortgages are finally coming on the market. With regards to pozos (I am in 2 myself), this can turn out in 2 ways:
1) Inflation stabilizes further, and there is no flight to the dollar. In this scenario, your peso installments per month will increase slightly, but not by a whole lot. They will be a bit more expensive in USD terms, but nothing major (since March this year my peso CAC installments have increased by 4% in dollar terms).
2) Inflation picks up due to a flight to the dollar and there's a devaluation. In this scenario, your installments would probably decrease in dollar terms, despite the peso amount going up a lot faster.
So in both cases in dollar terms you should not see a significant shift, unless #2 plays out with a brutal devaluation like under Macri, thanks to which I ended up paying 20% less in dollars for an apartment with a pozo structure.
If you have an agreement in dollar installments without CAC, those installments would be fixed, but hardly any developer gives out that kind of financing anymore, unless it goes with a significantly higher m2 price vs the market currently.
With regards to the m2 price, I frankly only see that going up mid to long term, since demand is outweighing supply and mortgages are a thing again.