Inserting the Wild Card
A breakdown on potential 2027 candidate Dante Gebel
Welcome Avatar! In the past month there has been a strong push coming from Milei’s opposition to install a new candidate ahead of the 2027 presidential elections: Dante Gebel. Let’s go over this evangelical pastor’s background, discuss the why of his sudden emergence in all major mainstream media outlets in Argentina, and what this could potentially mean for the outcome of the national elections next year.
But before we do, let’s go over an update of the latest telenovela around Manuel Adorni, Milei’s preferred candidate for the Buenos Aires city governor and potential successor after a second term.
Last month’s Argentina Macro Pulse discussed the origins of lamestream media discussing where Adorni got the cash from to paint his bathroom; there’s a bit more to it than that, but compared to other corruption scandals like the SIRA corruption case (an ongoing investigation into the untraceable withdrawal of at least US$530 million in cash from currency exchange houses and imports using the SIRA system in 2023 for US$73 billion), Adorni’s numbers really do not justify 24/7 media coverage:
The move is clear: weaken the inner circle of Milei to try to impede its territorial advancement. It is important to bear in mind that Adorni won the CABA legislative midterm election last May, and then Milei’s party won again by a huge margin in October.
Another interesting data point is that something similar happened last year with another high-profile candidate from Milei’s inner circle: Jose Luis Espert. He was running for another high-caliber district (Provincia de Buenos Aires), and was also torpedoed in the media with an alleged case, linking a 2019 campaign with a narco-donor.
Despite the factual base, whether this has legal grounds or not, it seems like some people are very worried every time Milei’s inner circle eyes high-caliber districts.
Profe José Luis Espert's closet skeletons turned out to be too alive for him to continue in the governor race. He had to bail. Since then, no legal action has been taken against him, which suggests the allegations probably wouldn't have held up in court (or were merely a tool to get rid of him). The Adorni media frenzy around his home, swimming pool fountain and remodeled bathroom tastes fairly similar.
The Milei Siblings Vouch for Adorni
President Javier Milei and his sister, Secretary General Karina Milei, have already made the political decision to keep Manuel Adorni in his position as Chief of Staff, despite the investigation for alleged illicit enrichment and the rumors of his replacement.
This weekend, President Milei confirmed once more that his support for Adorni was unconditional:
“I’m not going to throw him [Adorni] under the bus to win the election.”
Milei’s renewed defense of Adorni came as internal criticism mounted against his Chief of Staff, who repeatedly avoided publicly explaining where he got the US tokens for his assets. It looks like he will not be withdrawing their support from Adorni’s candidacy for city governor any time soon, which could be a costly decision depending on public opinion.
Nearly 60 days after the controversy began, various factions and levels within the ruling party suggest that the case is taking a heavy toll on others in the La Libertad Avanza circle. Within the government, only Senator Patricia Bullrich directly expressed this discontent, pressuring Adorni to “immediately” submit his sworn statement of assets to stop “bogging down” the administration.
Bullrich pressured Adorni on A24 to submit his sworn statement "immediately," saying he needs to "make an effort to end this as soon as possible," and that if the numbers check out everyone else can drop the subject; if not, the courts will sort it.
According to President Milei, Adorni will present the numbers Bullrich was alluding to, and everything will be done and dusted. The opposition does not seem convinced that this will be the case. Anyhow, it is another dent in the political structure of La Libertad Avanza, and this story still has legs. We will see where it ends in the upcoming months.
Presi-Dante?
In the midst of the Adorni media frenzy, a first push was made to install a “new” face ahead of the 2027 elections: Dante Gebel.
People would be hard-pressed to find a more unnatural and forced insertion into candidacy than has been the case here: unlike Milei who gradually moved from TV to social media to politics, Dante Gebel, at least in my personal social media circle, seems to come absolutely out of nowhere.
It was pretty impressive to see how all big channels and newspapers were suddenly talking about a potential presidential candidate. The funding must have been massive. So who is behind this evangelical pastor, who doesn’t even live in Argentina? Let’s find out.