"Besides taking out overnight repos, the reason why inflation is dropping so fast is twofold: 1) Lowering of interest rates and 2) declining economic activity." Reduced supply of money? Change in velocity of circulation?
This is funny: you confused Nicolás Posse, the guy who got ejected from Milei's government, and Abel Posse, a much more famous and influential man (already deceased; he was a writer, journalist and politician).
"The light at the end of the legislative tunnel is that the more pushback Milei receives, the more likely it is that his party La Libertad Avanza will win the 2025 midterm elections with a massive landslide. After that, pushing changes through both chambers will become a lot easier." Why is that?
Also, if wages continue to drop and the recession continues, why do you expect we've reached a bottom in real estate prices, as you mentioned on twitter?
Real estate is disconnected from recessions in so far that all property is priced in USD, construction costs are going up considerably and credit is coming back in a -30% / -50% USD price scenario for RE prices. So I don’t expect a stagnating scenario for the rest of this year to have that much of an impact on prices. With regards to the other paragraph, that’s because right now LLA has a minority in both chambers, which renews in the midterms. If they win a lot of seats, they + Pro could have a majority vote in both Senate and House.
"Besides taking out overnight repos, the reason why inflation is dropping so fast is twofold: 1) Lowering of interest rates and 2) declining economic activity." Reduced supply of money? Change in velocity of circulation?
Yes, supply in the economy and less overnight repo printing. Velocity is also going down in terms of circulation
This is funny: you confused Nicolás Posse, the guy who got ejected from Milei's government, and Abel Posse, a much more famous and influential man (already deceased; he was a writer, journalist and politician).
Ah dammit, that is my literary mind running wild. Thanks for mentioning it, I just corrected it 😂
"The light at the end of the legislative tunnel is that the more pushback Milei receives, the more likely it is that his party La Libertad Avanza will win the 2025 midterm elections with a massive landslide. After that, pushing changes through both chambers will become a lot easier." Why is that?
Also, if wages continue to drop and the recession continues, why do you expect we've reached a bottom in real estate prices, as you mentioned on twitter?
Real estate is disconnected from recessions in so far that all property is priced in USD, construction costs are going up considerably and credit is coming back in a -30% / -50% USD price scenario for RE prices. So I don’t expect a stagnating scenario for the rest of this year to have that much of an impact on prices. With regards to the other paragraph, that’s because right now LLA has a minority in both chambers, which renews in the midterms. If they win a lot of seats, they + Pro could have a majority vote in both Senate and House.