Solid take, and I'm also disappointed at his debt fundamentalism. That doesn't help if he's seen as a BTC spokesman, but at least we've got Saylor. What do you make of Milei almost immediately meeting with Israeli representatives the second the votes were counted? They don't provide much in terms of economic input. Perhaps just indirect signaling to the US?
Yes, I agree - in the current situation Argentina would actually still need to take on some debt most likely before being able to lift the currency restrictions, since CB net reserves are still close to negative. With regards to Milei's Israel stance it's a bit of both: he wants to signal as much as possible how much he wants Argentina to be part of the West (this is also why he met with Zelensky and said he wants Argentina to join NATO, and on the other side it's a personal religious interest of his. He was not brought up Jewish but he has been more and more interested in the religious aspects since the last 2-3 years or so. Besides that, in Argentina there is a considerable Jewish community (and in the 1990s there have been some very severe terrorist attacks), and Israel is always seen as "capitalist" vs people on the left being anti-Israel. But all that is mainly signaling imo.
let me see if i get this right, they've basically moved the reverse repos from CB BS to Treasury in form of LECAPs etc. Are these no longer part of the base monetaria ampliada? ultimately, they are still paying high interest , and ultimately inflationary?
Yes they are still paying interest but below inflation, not the 160%+ that the Leliqs were generating. These are part of the base monetaria ampliada, but a lot of the existing peso debt has also been paid off (importers debt and other instruments) - the base ampliada graph takes inflation into account, so nominally it might have increased but in practice there are way less pesos in the economy vs before
Solid take, and I'm also disappointed at his debt fundamentalism. That doesn't help if he's seen as a BTC spokesman, but at least we've got Saylor. What do you make of Milei almost immediately meeting with Israeli representatives the second the votes were counted? They don't provide much in terms of economic input. Perhaps just indirect signaling to the US?
Yes, I agree - in the current situation Argentina would actually still need to take on some debt most likely before being able to lift the currency restrictions, since CB net reserves are still close to negative. With regards to Milei's Israel stance it's a bit of both: he wants to signal as much as possible how much he wants Argentina to be part of the West (this is also why he met with Zelensky and said he wants Argentina to join NATO, and on the other side it's a personal religious interest of his. He was not brought up Jewish but he has been more and more interested in the religious aspects since the last 2-3 years or so. Besides that, in Argentina there is a considerable Jewish community (and in the 1990s there have been some very severe terrorist attacks), and Israel is always seen as "capitalist" vs people on the left being anti-Israel. But all that is mainly signaling imo.
let me see if i get this right, they've basically moved the reverse repos from CB BS to Treasury in form of LECAPs etc. Are these no longer part of the base monetaria ampliada? ultimately, they are still paying high interest , and ultimately inflationary?
Yes they are still paying interest but below inflation, not the 160%+ that the Leliqs were generating. These are part of the base monetaria ampliada, but a lot of the existing peso debt has also been paid off (importers debt and other instruments) - the base ampliada graph takes inflation into account, so nominally it might have increased but in practice there are way less pesos in the economy vs before