Great analysis as usual! Spot on target. TONS of properties were purchased in pozos as you mentioned that aren't reflected in these escritura #'s. Our company called the bottom last July and predicted it was absolute bottom. We jumped in a lot of pozo properties that are finishing now. Some owners have already flipped for a 20% to 25% increase from just last year.
I agree not all the amnesty funds will all go into real estate but our guess is probably 40% will end up going into the real estate market by the end of 2025. Your estimate of 30% is also great. Probably somewhere between 30% to 50% will find its way into the real estate market. Either way that is a HUGE number and should push up property prices tremendously in 2025.
Those that bought last year or that buy this year will be very happy.
I still remember that dinner we had last year when we predicted all of this explosion in real estate. Everything we both predicted is playing out now. It's never easy calling the bottom when real estate prices fall 4+ years in a row but I have to admit we nailed it!
Yeah it was pretty spot on, and that was BEFORE Milei was even on the map as a potential President (at that time I still thought he would lose against Massa in a runoff)
Nah, we were doing some polling and it was clear to us that President Milei would win. Just like we knew Trump would win. People were just sick of the status quo.
Regardless of who was president, property prices hit rock bottom. People always think prices will fall forever when they are in the toilet but this is never the case.
Same thing happened in the USA when we picked up real estate in 2010 and 2011. Banks didn't even want to give mortgage then to qualified individuals. It was crazy. That ended up being a good investment too. Property prices here went up 200% since our entry point in the USA.
Now, we just watch and see how much of these amnesty funds go into the real estate market. Many of our investors just got into a new pozo investment in Palermo Hollywood and it's amazing seeing how quickly it's getting sold and it's not even marketed yet.
We will have to celebrate in January with a juicy steak.
Great analysis as usual! Spot on target. TONS of properties were purchased in pozos as you mentioned that aren't reflected in these escritura #'s. Our company called the bottom last July and predicted it was absolute bottom. We jumped in a lot of pozo properties that are finishing now. Some owners have already flipped for a 20% to 25% increase from just last year.
I agree not all the amnesty funds will all go into real estate but our guess is probably 40% will end up going into the real estate market by the end of 2025. Your estimate of 30% is also great. Probably somewhere between 30% to 50% will find its way into the real estate market. Either way that is a HUGE number and should push up property prices tremendously in 2025.
Those that bought last year or that buy this year will be very happy.
I still remember that dinner we had last year when we predicted all of this explosion in real estate. Everything we both predicted is playing out now. It's never easy calling the bottom when real estate prices fall 4+ years in a row but I have to admit we nailed it!
Yeah it was pretty spot on, and that was BEFORE Milei was even on the map as a potential President (at that time I still thought he would lose against Massa in a runoff)
Nah, we were doing some polling and it was clear to us that President Milei would win. Just like we knew Trump would win. People were just sick of the status quo.
Regardless of who was president, property prices hit rock bottom. People always think prices will fall forever when they are in the toilet but this is never the case.
Same thing happened in the USA when we picked up real estate in 2010 and 2011. Banks didn't even want to give mortgage then to qualified individuals. It was crazy. That ended up being a good investment too. Property prices here went up 200% since our entry point in the USA.
Now, we just watch and see how much of these amnesty funds go into the real estate market. Many of our investors just got into a new pozo investment in Palermo Hollywood and it's amazing seeing how quickly it's getting sold and it's not even marketed yet.
We will have to celebrate in January with a juicy steak.