Argentina Macro Pulse No.1: March 2026
Macro Challenges for 2026-27 (Founding Members Only)
Welcome Avatar! As promised in The Report on the President’s Desk, here is your first Argentina Macro Pulse, the monthly macroeconomic report that lands on President Milei’s desk.
This month's report, "Macro Challenges for 2026-27", is authored by Juan Ignacio Fernández, economist and La Libertad Avanza deputy, who advises the Milei administration on macroeconomic policy. It tackles the question that everyone with skin in the Argentine game is asking right now: can the recovery hold, or has the initial rebound already played out?
If you’ve been following this blog, you know I’ve covered this question from multiple angles in Argentina’s Challenges in 2026 and Lionheart: Milei’s First Year in Office.
What makes this report different is the source: these are the projections and frameworks that the people running the economy are actually using. That context is hard to get anywhere else in English.
A few highlights of what you’ll find below:
Inflation came down from 211% to 31%, but has been hovering around 3% monthly since late 2025. The report explains why, and why that’s actually by design.
Reserve accumulation is the government’s top priority right now. Around USD 3.3 billion has been added so far in 2026, and that number could exceed USD 8 billion before mid-year.
The debt maturity wall: roughly USD 35 billion is due between now and the end of 2027. How the government plans to manage this without turning on the peso printer is the central question of the next 20 months.
Exports hit a record USD 87 billion in 2025 and are still growing, driven by energy and agriculture. The second quarter will bring peak seasonal inflows, adding even more appreciation pressure on the peso.
After the report, I’ve added my own comments on what this means for you as a reader, investor, or someone evaluating Argentina as a base.